Should I Buy Cryptocurrency? A Values-Based Decision Framework
You've watched crypto make some people rich and others lose everything. The fear of missing out battles the fear of losing money. You're not sure if crypto is a revolutionary technology, a speculative bubble, or something in between—and everyone seems to have strong opinions.
Key Takeaway
This decision is fundamentally about Risk Tolerance vs. Speculation vs. Investment. Your choice will also impact your technological conviction.
The Core Values at Stake
This decision touches on several fundamental values that may be in tension with each other:
Risk Tolerance
Your capacity for extreme volatility. Crypto can drop 50%+ in months—can you hold through that without panic selling?
Speculation vs. Investment
Your philosophy about what you're doing. Crypto is speculative—no cash flows or dividends. Be honest about whether you're investing or gambling.
Technological Conviction
Your belief in blockchain technology's future. Strong conviction helps hold through volatility; weak conviction leads to panic selling.
Diversification
Your approach to portfolio construction. Consider how crypto fits with your overall investment strategy.
FOMO Resistance
Your ability to make decisions based on your situation, not others' gains. Fear of missing out drives poor timing decisions.
5 Key Questions to Ask Yourself
Before making this decision, work through these questions honestly:
- 1Am I prepared to lose 100% of what I put into crypto?
- 2Do I actually understand what I'm buying, or am I following hype?
- 3What percentage of my portfolio would this represent, and is that appropriate?
- 4Am I buying because I've done research or because I see others making money?
- 5Do I have my financial basics covered (emergency fund, retirement, debt) before speculating?
Key Considerations
As you weigh this decision, keep these important factors in mind:
Watch Out For: Recency Bias
We overweight recent events—crypto going up makes us think it will keep going up. But past performance doesn't predict future results. Crypto has had multiple 80%+ crashes. Don't assume recent gains will continue just because they've happened recently.
Make This Decision With Clarity
Don't just guess. Use Dcider to calculate your alignment score and make decisions that truly reflect your values.
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People Also Considered
Similar decisions in other areas of life:
Sources
- Liu, Y., & Tsyvinski, A. (2021). Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency. The Review of Financial Studies.doi:10.1093/rfs/hhab029
- Bouri, E., et al. (2017). Herding behaviour in cryptocurrencies. Finance Research Letters.